Dow theory is very old theory which is used to derive the trend of the stock with demand and Supply. Forecasting is not done using this.
To find the trend: Plot a 2 year price graph of a stock, identify the higher and lower tops as well as the higher and lower bottoms. If the price is moving towards higher bottom to higher top, it is bullish trend. In Bearish trend, the price moves from Lower top to lower bottom.
A trend is reliable for a month or two. Main thing to note, trend reversals should be accompanied by high volume. If not, trend is not reliable.
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